Stony Brook 2:30 pm next Thurs (5/1). Weather and Impact Forecasting at a Public Utility

Title: Weather and Impact Forecasting at a Public Utility Endeavour Hall 120 on May 1 at 2:30 p.m.

Severe storms, heat, and climate change are all things that impact the ability of a utility to provide safe and reliable services to its customers. An accurate weather forecast is important but relating it to how the weather will impact the utility systems is critical. The meteorologists at Con Edison prepare daily weather forecasts specific to the company. They also use the weather information as inputs to a variety of models and decision making tools that provide the system operators an understanding of what impact the weather will have. We will present how that weather information is communicated and used within the company. Also, we will show some of our decision making tools; like an overhead electric impact model that was designed to predict the amount of work the company could expect under certain weather conditions. We will wrap up with some ideas for the future and how the business community can work together with the meteorology and academic community to create better information and tools.

Bio:

Brandon Hertell is a meteorologist at the Consolidated Edison Company of New York working in the Emergency Management department. Brandon holds a B.S. in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, and is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist. He is an active member of the American Meteorological Society and its Energy Sector Committee. He is a founding member of UtiliMet, a Utility Meteorologist benchmarking group composed of meteorologists working in the utility industry. Prior to Con Edison, Brandon worked as a forecaster routing ships and private yachts all over the world. He also spent some time in the news business as a morning on-air Meteorologist.

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The Weather Channel Gets Back in Touch With the Actual Weather

Brought to our attention by Pat Brennan

Weather Drift

The Weather Channel Gets Back in Touch With the Actual Weather

By Justin Bachman April 09, 2014

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April NJWO Meeting Reminder: Tonight 7 pm

Meeting Reminder Tonight 7pm. US Army and Navy Weather Training videos

April 9, 2014 AT 7:00 PM

The U.S. Army Presents

Clouds, Fronts, and Thunderstorms 101(1953-1966)

More info: www.njwo.org

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Stewartsville March 2013 Summary

Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary
Mar-14
DAY MAX MIN MEAN PRECIP SNOW SOG COMMENTS
1 37.0 5.0 21.0 0   9  
2 41.0 26.0 33.5 0.01 0.2 9  
3 29.0 12.0 20.5 0   9  
4 29.0 6.0 17.5 0   8.5  
5 38.0 20.0 29.0 0   8.5  
6 33.0 14.0 23.5 0   8.5  
7 41.0 21.0 31.0 0   8.5  
8 52.0 28.0 40.0 0   8  
9 42.0 35.0 38.5 0   5  
10 51.0 35.0 43.0 0   4.5  
11 63.0 32.0 47.5 0   4  
12 54.0 26.0 40.0 0.29 T 1 Rain ended as sleet/snow
13 30.0 17.0 23.5 0   T Wind gust 38
14 46.0 19.0 32.5 0   T  
15 55.0 41.0 48.0 0   T  
16 41.0 28.0 34.5 0   T  
17 34.0 22.0 28.0 0   T  
18 47.0 22.0 34.5 0   T  
19 43.0 27.0 35.0 0.66   T .73 in clear vue 7am 3/20
20 52.0 39.0 45.5 0   T  
21 52.0 33.0 42.5 0   T  
22 63.0 32.0 47.5 0   T  
23 42.0 25.0 33.5 0   T  
24 35.0 19.0 27.0 0   T  
25 39.0 19.0 29.0 0 T T very light snow from coastal
26 35.0 23.0 29.0 0   T  
27 45.0 19.0 32.0 0   T  
28 60.0 35.0 47.5 0.1      
29 53.0 43.0 48.0 1.28      
30 47.0 38.0 42.5 0.86 T   Rain ends as sleet
31 55.0 36.0 45.5 0.01 T   Storm total: 2.24″
3.21 0.20
Season Snow Total: 61.30
Extreme High 63.0 Date: 22-Mar
Extreme Low 5.0 Date: 1-Mar
Mean Max: 44.6
Mean Low: 25.7
Mean: 35.2
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Cloud Cover Forecast Site

I came across this website that displays a forecast of cloud cover. I found it via a photography link but it applies to almost anything. It’s called SkippySky Astro Weather and is available here:

http://www.skippysky.com.au/NorthAmerica/

It appears to use the GFS data.

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Contrasting Changes in Mean and Extreme Snowfall in a Warming Climate – Stony Brook 3/26 at noon

TOPICS IN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCES (TAOS)

Wednesday, March 26, 2014
12:00 Noon
Endeavour Hall 120

Dr. Paul O’Gorman

Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

TOPIC:

"Contrasting Changes in Mean and Extreme
Snowfall in a Warming Climate"

ABSTRACT

Snowfall is sensitive to climate change through changes in both air temperature and humidity. Because of the sensitivity to temperature and except in regions with very low surface temperatures, annual-mean snowfall is expected to decrease in a warming climate. However, comprehensive climate models simulate only small fractional changes in daily snowfall extremes for many regions and months of the year with large declines in mean snowfall. An asymptotic theory is introduced for the magnitude of snowfall extremes. The theory is based on the temperature dependencies of the rain-snow transition and precipitation intensity, and it accounts for the main features of the response of snowfall extremes to warming in the simulations.

Gina
====================
Gina Gartin, Staff Assistant
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000
Phone (631) 632-8009
Fax (631) 632-6251

Please note new email address: Gina.Gartin

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March Meeting Reminder: Tomorrow, March 12 7 pm

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Live Stony Brook University Weather Discussions on Fridays – Today at 4:30 p.m.

Hi everyone,

FYI.. the Friday weather discussions are also broadcast live on the following link using adobe connect (you can enter the virtual room as a guest). In past weeks (when the weather was active) we have had the NYC National Weather Service and Weather Prediction Center in D.C. to participate in the discussions… Thanks to Mark Lang for setting this up for us….

https://meeting.sinc.stonybrook.edu/r26073963

Brian

FRIDAY WEATHER DISCUSSION

4:30 p.m.
Meteorology Lab, Endeavour 139

Led by Michael Erickson

Graduate Student

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

March 7th Topic:

"A glimpse back at our meteorological winter and potential future happenings"

We hope to see you there!

For summaries of previous weather discussions, please visit http://comap.weebly.com/weather-discussions.html.

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Stewartsville February 2014 Summary

Received more snow in February than I do in some years!!!

Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary
Feb-14
DAY MAX MIN MEAN PRECIP SNOW SOG COMMENTS
1 46.0 24.0 35.0 0.00   3.5   1
2 47.0 26.0 36.5 0.00   3  
3 39.0 20.0 29.5 0.85 8.6 7  
4 33.0 12.0 22.5 0.00   11  
5 36.0 28.0 32.0 1.20 2.8 12  
6 29.0 18.0 23.5 0.00   11  
7 32.0 19.0 25.5 0.00   10  
8 28.0 15.0 21.5 0.00   10  
9 29.0 15.0 22.0 0.11 1.1 11  
10 29.0 12.0 20.5 0.00   11  
11 25.0 6.0 15.5 0.00   10.5  
12 26.0 2.0 14.0 0.00 T 10.5  
13 34.0 21.0 27.5 1.05 13.5 12.5 11.5″ from part I
14 40.0 26.0 33.0 T 0.9 24 14.4 storm total
15 37.0 24.0 30.5 0.13 1.4 19.5  
16 27.0 17.0 22.0 0.00   21  
17 31.0 9.0 20.0 0.00   20  
18 39.0 21.0 30.0 0.10 1.8 21.5  
19 43.0 21.0 32.0 0.00   19.5  
20 50.0 28.0 39.0 0.00   18  
21 50.0 34.0 42.0 0.00   16  
22 55.0 31.0 43.0 0.00   12  
23 52.0 28.0 40.0 0.00   11  
24 42.0 27.0 34.5 T T 10 flurries
25 31.0 21.0 26.0 T T 9.5 flurries
26 30.0 12.0 21.0 0.01 0.5 9.5  
27 31.0 4.0 17.5 0.00 T 9.5  
28 23.0 5.0 14.0 0.00   9.5  
3.45 30.60
Extreme High 55.0 Date: 22-Feb Seasonal Snow Total: 61.10
Extreme Low 2.0 Date: 12-Feb
Mean Max: 35.0
Mean Low: 18.1
Mean: 26.6
dabour@att.net
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“Opportunities for Private-Sector Meteorologists” – 2/27 on line tonight 7:30 EST -

The following is information you may find of interest:

  • Professional Development Seminar Series Tonight (2/27/14)

· AMS Books Releases Living on the Real World: How Thinking and Acting Like Meteorologists Will Help Save the Planet

Professional Development Seminar Series Tonight

The North Florida Chapter would like to invite you to join them in part one of the chapter’s Professional Development Seminar Series tonight. It will start at 7:30pm eastern time, and will be visible on YouTube. The North Florida Chapter of the AMS/NWA will be using Google Plus and its Hangout feature to bring you a panel of all-stars that will include:

Ken Carey: Our main guest and keynote speaker for this part of the series. Ken will be speaking about "Opportunities for Private-Sector Meteorologists" and has already gotten a few questions on various topics.

- Janice Bunting, Executive Director of the National Weather Association

- Frank Alsheimer, Science and Operations Officer at NWS Charleston, SC

- Andrew Briscoe, North FL AMS/NWA Science and Outreach Officer and host of this event

- Officers and members from the Blue Ridge Chapter of the AMS/NWA and from the OU Student Chapter of the AMS

Our (in progress) google + page is here: https://plus.google.com/104692355563537672217/posts

The facebook event is here: https://www.facebook.com/events/454499161318496/

The YouTube link will be posted on twitter @NorthFLAMSNWA when it is available

The hangout should appear live on both Google Plus and YouTube as the event begins. They will try to post the link to the video as soon as it appears. They will be taking questions via their chapter’s twitter handle: #AMSNWA. Questions are encouraged. The event is expected to run for an hour. If you miss this event, it will be recorded and posted to YouTube live.

AMS Books Releases Living on the Real World: How Thinking and Acting Like Meteorologists Will Help Save the Planet

Publication Date: February 2014

272 pages paperback

List Price: $30, AMS Member Price: $22

Meteorologists sift through a deluge of information to make predictions every day. Instead of being overwhelmed by the data and possibilities, they focus on small bits of information while using frequent collaboration to make decisions. With climate change a reality, William H. Hooke suggests we look to the way meteorologists operate as a model for how we can solve the twenty-first century’s most urgent environmental problems.

Living on the Real World explains why we should approach environmental issues collaboratively, each taking on a challenging aspect and finding solutions to small parts of the larger problem. It outlines current crises brought about by climate change and extreme weather, including impacts on food, water, and energy, and then explores the ways we can tackle these problems together.

Blending science with a philosophical approach, Hooke offers a clear-eyed analysis as well as an inspiring call to action. Everyone from scientists to politicians, educators to journalists, and businesses large and small, can—and must—participate in order to save the planet for generations to come.

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