Gray & Klotzbach Delay 2012 Tropical Activity Forecast until Spring

Famed Hurricane Forecaster Delays Prediction Until Spring

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2011/12/15/famed-hurricane-forecaster-delays-prediction-to-spring/

December 15, 2011 8:55 AM

(Source: NOAA)

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (CBSMiami/AP) — December is not only the end of hurricane season it’s also the time of year when experts release their annual hurricane predictions for the following year, but not anymore.

Hurricane forecaster William Gray will now wait until spring to predict how many storms will form in the Atlantic.

Gray and his research partner at Colorado State University, Philip Klotzbach, usually start making predictions in December but this month, for the first time in 20 years, they’re holding off on forecasting the number of named storms, including hurricanes.

Klotzbach says they’ve tried various models but none have been successful in estimating the number of storms that early. He acknowledges that, currently, predicting hurricanes that far out is “just about as good as making a guess.”

CSU will still issue a discussion of possible hurricane activity each December but the first estimate of the number of storms won’t come until April.

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