Stony Brook Fall 2015 Seminar Schedule

View seminars live, if available here: http://you.stonybrook.edu/somas/seminars/

Click on date and then view event live (see below)

Have a great end of summer and browse the attached Wednesday noon seminars (same in word and Pdf).

Keep an eye to the sky, tropics and the northwest as the seasons change.

Mark Kramer, Chair

New York City/Long Island AMS Chapter

http://www.nws.bnl.org/meetings.html

TAOS Fall2015 Stony Brook Seminars.docx

TAOS Fall2015 Stony Brook Seminars.pdf

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July 2015 Gaithersburg 2 WNW Maryland – Summary statistics, descriptive climatology by Observer/NJWO member Kevin Shaw

JULY 2015 – GAITHERSBURG 2 WNW MARYLAND
BRIEF SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR WEATHER SHELTER
by Kevin Shaw, Observer in charge

Average high temperature 85.1° (- 1.7°)
Average low temperature 67.8° (+ 2.1°)
Mean temperature 76.4° (+ 0.2°)
Precipitation 2.10″ (- 1.64″)
Greatest daily amount 0.89″ (4)
Year to date precipitation 27.20″ (+ 0.92″)
High temperature for the month (date) 95° (19)
Low temperature for the month (date) 60° (16,24)
Highest barometric pressure (date) 30.15″ (5)
Lowest barometric pressure (date) 29.52″ (14)
Peak wind gust (date/direction): 20 (21/WSW)
Heating degree days for the month: 0
Cooling degree days for the month: 355
Greatest diurnal range (date): 26.2° (24)
Least diurnal range (date) 7.1° (2)

Fog days: 0
Thunder days: 2
Sunny/clear days: 7 Partly Cloudy days: 19 Cloudy days: 5

Days with measurable precipitation (=>.01″) = 10
Days with maximum temperatures of 90 or more = 4
Days with minimum temperatures of 70 or more = 14

JULY 2015 MONTHLY SUMMARY – GAITHERSBURG 2 WNW MARYLAND
by Kevin Shaw, observer in charge

July 2015 was not very noteworthy, particularly statistically with regard to temperature. Slightly above normal low temperatures were just about balanced out by slightly below normal high temperatures, resulting in a mean temperature within + 0.2° of normal. Precipitation was significantly below normal after a wet June, as the 2.10″ total was the eighth driest July in my 36 year period of record (POR). No record high or low temperatures were set, nor any daily precipitation records. The only records set were a daily low max temperature of 73° on July 2, and a daily high min temperature of 76° on the 20th, on the day after the hottest temperature of the month occurred (95° on the 19th). The lowest temperature of the month was set both on the 16th and 24th with a 60° reading. Precipitation, while meager, was spread out over 10 days with measurable albeit small amounts, but just a day below the long term POR average. There was only 2 thunder days for the entire month, tying 2002 and 2006 for the least amount ever during my POR (some years are missing – 30 year POR).

The average maximum temperature for the month was 85.1° (-1.7°), the average minimum temperature was 67.8°(+2.1°). The resultant mean average temperature for the month was 76.4° (+ 0.2°). Nothing really notably statistically as to record extremes on any of those temperature statistics. As in June we had a modest 4 days with max temperatures at or above 90°, considerably below the long term normal of 10.6. There were an above normal amount of days with minimum temperatures of 70° or more with 14, normal is probably around half that amount. Unfortunately I don’t have a long-term average amount for that statistic.

The month’s total precipitation amount of 2.10″ was 1.64″ below the normal July amount of 3.74″. The 10 days of measurable precipitation during the month was just a bit below the long term average of 11 days. The year to date (YTD) precipitation total of 27.20″ now puts us at 0.92″ above the normal YTD average amount for this time of year of 26.28″.

The monthly barometric pressure extremes were a very modest 30.15″ on the 5th at the end of our coolest period of the month with the 29.52″ lowest pressure value being recorded on the 14th, during one of our 2 day rainfall periods from a more active system than took place at other times during the month. Average barometric pressure for the month was 29.92″, within .005″ if you averaged the two extreme values (29.99″ and 29.86″). So far with five months study under my belt, this relationship has shown up as the same in March, 0.06″ difference in April, and 0.02″ in May and June, and now 0.005″ in July. These values look very promising for developing some sort of relationship there. Further study needed at least through the rest of the year.

The distribution of 7 sunny, 19 partly cloudy and 5 cloudy days coincided with the significantly below normal monthly precipitation 2.10″ amount.

There was 0 heating degree days and 355 cooling degree days. There were no days with fog observed, but with being retired now, I have been sleeping late and missing the prime time for observing fog, so we must take this very low reading with a grain of salt, especially when I had 17 days during the month when I had peak daily relative humidity percentages of 95 or greater. The peak wind gust during July was a modest 20 MPH (WSW) during a brief shower associated with a FROPA on the evening of the 21st.

My maximum temperature frequencies included 4 days at or above 90°, 23 days between 80° and 89°, and 4 days between 70°and 79°, On the minimum temperature frequency side of things, there were 17 days between 60°-69° and 14 days with minimums of 70° or greater.

The diurnal range average was a bit below normal (17.2° vs the normal 21.1°). The max daily range of 26.2° occurred on the 24th during a cooler, drier air mass we were fortunate to be under at the time. The lowest daily temperature range of 7.1° occurred on the 2nd during our coolest day of the month with lots of clouds but surprisingly no rain. We had a total of only 2 days during the month with a diurnal range less than 10° while there were a considerable 10 days with ranges of 20° or more, most of which occurred during the last half of the month.

The month of July 2015 had generally cooler temperatures during the first half of the month, with generally warmer temperatures during the last half of the month. As has been the case the past few years, warm nights persisted with many muggy nights most of the month. Once again, we failed to hit low temperatures in the 50s this July, I have done that 5 times now since I started recording temperatures back in 1979, and 3 of those 5 months occurred in 2011 and later. Three July months recorded mins in the 40s, but that has not occurred at all since 1988. Precipitation was fairly evenly dispersed during the month. So far in August we have started out a bit cooler and drier than normal. I don’t have any feeling one way or the other as far as that pattern maintaining the rest of the month. Details for August coming next, in a few short weeks.


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JULY 2015 – GAITHERSBURG 2 WNW MARYLAND BRIEF SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR WEATHER SHELTER
by Kevin Shaw, Observer in charge

Average high temperature 85.1 (- 1.7) Average low temperature 67.8 (+ 2.1) Mean temperature 76.4 (+ 0.2) Precipitation 2.10″ (- 1.64″) Greatest daily amount 0.89″ (4) Year to date precipitation 27.20″ (+ 0.92″) High temperature for the month (date) 95 (19) Low temperature for the month (date) 60 (16,24) Highest barometric pressure (date) 30.15″ (5) Lowest barometric pressure (date) 29.52″ (14) Peak wind gust (date/direction): 20 (21/WSW) Heating degree days for the month: 0
Cooling degree days for the month: 355
Greatest diurnal range (date): 26.2 (24) Least diurnal range (date) 7.1 (2)

Fog days: 0 Thunder days: 2
Sunny/clear days: 7 Partly Cloudy days: 19 Cloudy days: 5

Days with measurable precipitation (=>.01″) = 10 Days with maximum temperatures of 90 or more = 4
Days with minimum temperatures of 70 or more = 14

JULY 2015 MONTHLY SUMMARY – GAITHERSBURG 2 WNW MARYLAND
by Kevin Shaw, observer in charge

July 2015 was not very noteworthy, particularly statistically with regard to temperature. Slightly above normal low temperatures were just about balanced out by slightly below normal high temperatures, resulting in a mean temperature within + 0.2 of normal. Precipitation was significantly below normal after a wet June, as the 2.10″ total was the eighth driest July in my 36 year period of record (POR). No record high or low temperatures were set, nor any daily precipitation records. The only records set were a daily low max temperature of 73 on July 2, and a daily high min temperature of 76 on the 20th, on the day after the hottest temperature of the month occurred (95 on the 19th). The lowest temperature of the month was set both on the 16th and 24th with a 60 reading. Precipitation, while meager, was spread out over 10 days with measurable albeit small amounts, but just a day below the long term POR average. There was only 2 thunder days for the entire month, tying 2002 and 2006 for the least amount ever during my POR (some years are missing – 30 year POR).

The average maximum temperature for the month was 85.1 (-1.7), the average minimum temperature was 67.8(+2.1). The resultant mean average temperature for the month was 76.4 (+ 0.2). Nothing really notably statistically as to record extremes on any of those temperature statistics. As in June we had a modest 4 days with max temperatures at or above 90, considerably below the long term normal of 10.6. There were an above normal amount of days with minimum temperatures of 70 or more with 14, normal is probably around half that amount. Unfortunately I don’t have a long-term average amount for that statistic.

The month’s total precipitation amount of 2.10″ was 1.64″ below the normal July amount of 3.74″. The 10 days of measurable precipitation during the month was just a bit below the long term average of 11 days. The year to date (YTD) precipitation total of 27.20″ now puts us at 0.92″ above the normal YTD average amount for this time of year of 26.28″.

The monthly barometric pressure extremes were a very modest 30.15″ on the 5th at the end of our coolest period of the month with the 29.52″ lowest pressure value being recorded on the 14th, during one of our 2 day rainfall periods from a more active system than took place at other times during the month. Average barometric pressure for the month was 29.92″, within .005″ if you averaged the two extreme values (29.99″ and 29.86″). So far with five months study under my belt, this relationship has shown up as the same in March, 0.06″ difference in April, and 0.02″ in May and June, and now 0.005″ in July. These values look very promising for developing some sort of relationship there. Further study needed at least through the rest of the year.

The distribution of 7 sunny, 19 partly cloudy and 5 cloudy days coincided with the significantly below normal monthly precipitation 2.10″ amount.
There was 0 heating degree days and 355 cooling degree days. There were no days with fog observed, but with being retired now, I have been sleeping late and missing the prime time for observing fog, so we must take this very low reading with a grain of salt, especially when I had 17 days during the month when I had peak daily relative humidity percentages of 95 or greater. The peak wind gust during July was a modest 20 MPH (WSW) during a brief shower associated with a FROPA on the evening of the 21st.

My maximum temperature frequencies included 4 days at or above 90, 23 days between 80 and 89, and 4 days between 70and 79, On the minimum temperature frequency side of things, there were 17 days between 60-69 and 14 days with minimums of 70 or greater.

The diurnal range average was a bit below normal (17.2 vs the normal 21.1). The max daily range of 26.2 occurred on the 24th during a cooler, drier air mass we were fortunate to be under at the time. The lowest daily temperature range of 7.1 occurred on the 2nd during our coolest day of the month with lots of clouds but suprisingly no rain. We had a total of only 2 days during the month with a diurnal range less than 10 while there were a considerable 10 days with ranges of 20 or more, most of which occurred during the last half of the month.

The month of July 2015 had generally cooler temperatures during the first half of the month, with generally warmer temperatures during the last half of the month. As has been the case the past few years, warm nights persisted with many muggy nights most of the month. Once again, we failed to hit low temperatures in the 50s this July, I have done that 5 times now since I started recording temperatures back in 1979, and 3 of those 5 months occurred in 2011 and later. Three July months recorded mins in the 40s, but that has not occurred at all since 1988. Precipitation was fairly evenly dispersed during the month. So far in August we have started out a bit cooler and drier than normal. I don’t have any feeling one way or the other as far as that pattern maintaining the rest of the month. Details for August coming next, in a few short weeks.

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Stewartsville July 2015 Summary

Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary
Jul-15
DAY MAX MIN MEAN PRECIP COMMENTS
1 82.0 66.0 74.0 0.23
2 80.0 60.0 70.0 0
3 80.0 59.0 69.5 0
4 76.0 65.0 70.5 0.13
5 82.0 62.0 72.0 0
6 85.0 63.0 74.0 0.09
7 87.0 71.0 79.0 0.2
8 86.0 71.0 78.5 0.59
9 84.0 67.0 75.5 0.54
10 84.0 66.0 75.0 0.02
11 87.0 61.0 74.0 0
12 86.0 60.0 73.0 0
13 87.0 64.0 75.5
14 83.0 66.0 74.5 0.93
15 83.0 64.0 73.5 0.96
16 80.0 56.0 68.0 0
17 82.0 57.0 69.5 0
18 86.0 69.0 77.5 0.59
19 93.0 67.0 80.0 0
20 91.0 72.0 81.5 0
21 87.0 67.0 77.0 0
22 82.0 60.0 71.0 0
23 82.0 58.0 70.0 0
24 84.0 56.0 70.0 0
25 87.0 57.0 72.0 0
26 88.0 65.0 76.5 0
27 86.0 68.0 77.0 1.09
28 93.0 67.0 80.0 0
29 92.0 65.0 78.5 0
30 86.0 73.0 79.5 0.25
31 88.0 64.0 76.0 0
5.62
Extreme High 93.0 Date: 28-Jul
Extreme Low 56.0 Date: 16-Jul
Mean Max: 85.1
Mean Low: 64.1
Mean: 74.6
dabour@att.net
Month Season
Days > 90 4.0 5.0
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July 2015 Climatological Summary for the NJWO Weathershelter – Reisterstown City Maryland – Observer Ray Muller

JULY 2015 CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY
REISTERSTOWN CITY MARYLAND
by Observer in charge/NJWO member Ray Muller

Average maximum temperature 84.6°
Average minimum temperature 65.8°
Average mean temperature 75.3°
High temperature 93° (19/1621)
Low temperature 57° (24/0627)
Max daily range in temperature 26° 83°-57° (24)
Min daily range in temperature 4° 72°-68° (4)
Number of 90° or more days 3
Min max temperature 72° (4)
Max min temperature 77° (20)

Monthly precipitation 3.96″ Year-to-date precipitation (through 6/30) 30.59″
Max precipitation in 12 hours 0.47″ (6) Max precipitation in 1 calendar day 0.96″ (6)
Number of precipitation days with .01″ or more 14
Number of precipitation days wth .10″ or more 10
Number of precipitation days with .50″ or more 3
Number of precipitation days with 1.00″or more 0

Weather types
Fog 15
Dense Fog 1
Thunder 10
Haze 10

Sky cover
Clear days 8
Partly cloudy days 16
Cloudy days 7

Pressure
Highest barometric pressure 30.14″ (5)
Lowest barometric pressure 29.53″ (15)

Winds
2 minute fastest mile 21 MPH from 270° (30/1348)
Peak wind gust 32 MPH from the W (30/1348) Gale wind days 0
Damaging wind days 0

Minimum relative humidity 33% (16/1408)

Summary: Went back to a more standard format. Felt that previous reports were overloaded with data that many observers would either have an interest in or understand it. It is much easier to compare data with other weather observers now.


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KOKX NWS Online Skywarn Class Scheduled Wednesday 7/22 at 7 pm

NWS Online Skywarn Class Scheduled Wednesday 7/22 at 7pm

Weather.gov > New York, NY > NWS Online Skywarn Class Scheduled Wednesday 7/22 at 7pm

Weather Service’s (NWS) voluntary Skywarn Spotter Team.

Learn all about severe weather. We will teach you to observe and report specific types of clouds that form “before” severe weather (hail, high winds, or even a tornado) develops. The information you provide will be used with our radar data to provide more accurate warning services for your and downstream communities that are in the path of thunderstorms. You will also be given safety tips to prepare for and respond to flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and lightning.

This free 2 ½ hour class is for the general public, including emergency managers, first responders, amateur radio operators, teachers, and students.

Registration URL: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5120854827844335361
Webinar ID: 112-779-483

You will receive email notification of How to Join the Webinar.

Please also visit our local Skywarn page for additional information on our Skywarn program.

Mark Kramer, Chair

New York City/Long Island AMS Chapter

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Stewartsville June 2015 Summary

Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary
Jun-15
DAY MAX MIN MEAN PRECIP COMMENTS
1 63.0 54.0 58.5 1.64
2 58.0 49.0 53.5 0.61 Storm total 3.11
3 71.0 52.0 61.5 0.00
4 69.0 54.0 61.5 0.00
5 73.0 55.0 64.0 0.01
6 82.0 57.0 69.5 0.04
7 77.0 48.0 62.5 0.00
8 84.0 62.0 73.0 0.46
9 82.0 64.0 73.0 0.18 shower around 10am. Maybe more?
10 83.0 57.0 70.0 0.00
11 89.0 66.0 77.5 0.02
12 92.0 67.0 79.5 0.00
13 84.0 70.0 77.0 0.00
14 88.0 62.0 75.0 0.80
15 87.0 69.0 78.0 0.23
16 85.0 65.0 75.0 0.30
17 82.0 60.0 71.0 0.00
18 69.0 63.0 66.0 0.05
19 85.0 67.0 76.0 0.01
20 70.0 63.0 66.5 0.31
21 88.0 69.0 78.5 0.34
22 89.0 67.0 78.0 0.00
23 87.0 68.0 77.5 0.00
24 83.0 62.0 72.5 0
25 80.0 56.0 68.0 0.01
26 82.0 63.0 72.5 0.04
27 69.0 57.0 63.0 1.07
28 73.0 58.0 65.5 0.66
29 78.0 57.0 67.5 0.00
30 84.0 60.0 72.0 0.00
6.78
Extreme High 92.0 Date: 6/12/2015
Extreme Low 48.0 Date: 6/7/2015
Mean Max: 79.5
Mean Low: 60.7
Mean: 70.1
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JUNE 2015 CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY REISTERSTOWN CITY MARYLAND by Observer in charge/NJWO member Ray Muller

JUNE 2015 CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY
REISTERSTOWN CITY MARYLAND
by Observer in charge/NJWO member Ray Muller

Average maximum temperature 82.0°
Average minimum temperature 65.5°
Average mean temperature 73.8°
High temperature 93° (23/1549)
Low temperature 54° (3/0654)
Max daily range in temperature 26° 92°-66° (11)
Min daily range in temperature 8° 62°-54° (3)
Number of 90° or more days 6
Min max temperature 62° (3)
Max min temperature 73° (23)
Heating degree days 13
Cooling degree days 300

Monthly precipitation 12.10″
Year-to-date precipitation (through 6/30) 26.63″
Max precipitation in 6 hours 0.86″ (1)
Max precipitation in 12 hours 1.21″ (1)
Max precipitation in 1 calendar day 2.46″ (1)
Number of precipitation days with .01″ or more 17
Number of precipitation days wth .10″ or more 11
Number of precipitation days with .50″ or more 9
Number of precipitation days with 1.00″or more 5
Number of precipitation days with 2.00″or more 1

Weather types
Fog 12
Dense Fog 2
Thunder 14
Haze 7
Smoke 2

Sky cover
Clear days 4
Partly cloudy days 14
Cloudy days 12
Mean sky cover (sunrise to sunset) 6.3
Estimated percent of possible sunshine 52

Pressure
Highest barometric pressure 30.24″ (3)
Lowest barometric pressure 29.64″ (28)

Winds
Daily prevailing direction West
Mean speed 11.3 MPH
Fastest mile 29 MPH from 280° (9)
Peak wind gust 42 MPH from the W (9)
Gale wind days 3
Damaging wind days 0

Relative Humidity
Mean relative humidity
0700 89%
1300 64%
1900 67%
Minimum relative humidity 41% (9/1500)
Maximum relative humidity 100% on 9 separate days, mostly AM

Minimum visibility 1/4 mile in dense fog (2)
Number of days with:
stratus clouds 5
fractostratus clouds 16
cumulus clouds 20
stratocumulus clouds 10
altocumulus clouds 14
altostratus clouds 10
cirrus clouds 14
cirrostratus clouds 7
cirrocumulus clouds 6
cumulonimbus clouds 5
mammatus clouds observed during a few special weather observations

Number of days with lightning: cloud-to-cloud (8 observed)
and cloud-to-ground (10 observed)
On the 1st and 9th cloud-to-ground lightning strikes were less than a minute apart at times according to my lightning detector.

Summary: Rainfall was over 8 inches above normal this month. Temperatures were slightly above normal.
Based on short term records back to June 2011, this is the wettest June on record for the Reisterstown Office location.


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June 2015 – Weather Station Highlights – Gaithersburg 2WNW Maryland by Kevin Shaw, Observer and NJWO contributing member

June 2015 was wetter and warmer than normal. It was much more extreme
on the precipitation side. Three daily precipitation records were set,
highlighted by the 3.10″ on the 27th which was the third wettest June
day ever. Coincidentally it remained mostly in the 60s all day, topping out
at 69.6° which rounds to 70°, but still set a daily record low max
temperature record for that date. The lawns and gardens in the community
are now quite green after a drier than normal spring. Other daily
precipitation records were set on the 20th (1.52″ – remnants of Tropical
Storm Bill) and 23rd (1.43″ – mostly from a very intense thunderstorm
with a 26.18”/hr max rain rate at 1809 EDT) which also coincidentally
was the day of the highest temperature for the month (93°) that tied
(with 2010) the daily record high temperature for the date. The minimum
temperature of 72° on the 14th also set a daily high min temperature
record. This reading occurred during our mid-month hot spell, when we
hit 90° a few times, and recorded several 70+ minimum temperatures,
tying record high minimum temperature records on three dates (12, 15, 21).
Both the beginning (especially) and end of the month were generally

cooler than normal. During the month 17 days of measurable rain were
recorded, well above normal. The 9.68″ monthly precipitation total is
now the 3rd largest ever for June.

The average maximum temperature for the month was 81.6° (-1.3°), the
average minimum temperature was 65.0°(+3.9°), the second highest
average minimum in my 37 year POR (period of record), only topped
by the 66.7° recorded in 2010. The resultant mean average temperature
for the month was 73.3° (+1.3°). Both the average max and average mean
temp values were in the middle of the “POR pack” as to the wormest/
coolest ever. The highest temperature recorded during the month was
the record-tying 93° on the 23rd. We had a modest 4 days with max
temperatures at or above 90° (normal is about 5.4), and an above normal
amount of minimum temperatures at or above 70° (10).

The month’s total precipitation amount of 9.68″ was 5.28″ above the
normal June amount of 4.40″. The 17 days of measurable precipitation
during the month was well above the long term average of 11.4 days. This

June ties 2006 for second place all-time in my POR, 1998 had 20 days
of measurable precipitation for the top spot in that category. The year
to date (YTD) precipitation total of 25.10″ now puts us 2.56″ above the

normal YTD average amount for this time of year of 22.54″.

The monthly barometric pressure extremes were a very modest 30.21″
on the 3rd and 4th in the middle of our coolest spell of the month and
a 29.66″ recorded in the early morning hours of the 28th when our
biggest rainstorm of the month was just exiting our area. Average
barometric pressure for the month was 29.96″, not the same value
you would get if you averaged the two extreme values (29.94″)
I had for the month but pretty darn close. So far with four months
study under my belt, this relationship has shown up as the same in
March, 0.06″ difference in April, and 0.02″ in May and June.
It looks promising for developing some sort of relationship there.
Further study needed at least through the rest of the year.

The distribution of 8 sunny, 13 partly cloudy and 9 cloudy days did
not align particularly well with the much above normal precipitation
pattern, nor the number of days with measurable precipitation, but
the great amount of warm, humid days during the middle of the month
did align somewhat.

There was 16 heating degree days and 266 cooling degree days.
There were 6 days with fog (close to long-term averages) and 8
days with thunder (a bit above the long-term average of 6).
The peak wind gust during June was a modest 20 MPH (WSW)
during a strong thunderstorm on the 23rd. I observed the storm
and I believe winds were actually gusting in much more exposed
locations to an estimated 35-40 MPH. The current anemometer
siting is about 23 feet off the ground in the back of the house,
and surrounded by trees and in the middle of our townhouse
cluster so the readings are significantly muted at times.

My maximum temperature frequencies included 4 days at or
above 90°, 16 days at or above 80°, 7 days between 70°and 79°,
and 3 days between 60° and 69°, On the minimum temperature
frequency side of things, there were 5 days between 50°-59°,
15 days between 60°-69°, and 10 days with mins of 70° or
greater.

The diurnal range average was a bit below normal (16.6° vs
the normal 21.8°). The max daily range of 25.5° occurred on
the 11th as we headed into our mid-month heat wave. The lowest
daily temperature range of 4.2° occurred on the 3rd during our
coolest day of the month with lots of clouds and a bit of light
rain. We had a total of 3 days during the month with a diurnal
range lower than 10° while there were only 7 days with ranges
of 20° or more.

The month of June had a nice cool beginning and ending to the
month, with a warm to hot middle. As has been the case the
past few years, the warm nights persisted and were the reason
for the above normal temperatures. Precipitation was fairly
evenly dispersed during the month, with significantly more the
last half (7.26″) than the first half (2.42″) though the
number of measurable precipitation days was about even
(8 first half, 9 second half). So far in July it appears that
this relatively cool and wet pattern will be carrying over,
at least through the first part of the month. The details for July
will be coming next, in a few short weeks. Have a great summer!
I am hoping for a cool, active summer. Let’s see what happens!

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New NWS graphic icons for forecasts starting 7-7-15

2015-07 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: June 29, 2015

Picturing the forecast:
National Weather Service graphics developed with NCAR research

Note: Examples of the graphics can be viewed at these two sites:

· https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/16094/picturing-forecast-national-weather-service-graphics-developed-ncar-research

· www.weather.gov (enter a forecast location)

BOULDER – New online graphics being rolled out this summer by the National Weather Service (NWS) are based on research by a team of risk communication experts at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) who focused on how to better convey forecast information visually.

Beginning July 7 the NWS will use the redesigned icons for all weather.gov local forecasts. These point-and-click forecasts influence weather-related decisions by people across the country, drawing 2 to 4 million unique web views daily.

The new icons will feature split images and color-coded boxes to better communicate the existence, timing, and potential severity of upcoming weather threats. For example, instead of portraying a night as entirely rainy, a split image could show a 30 percent chance of rain in the early part of the evening, followed by partial clearing after midnight. Colored rectangles drawn around the images will also be used to call attention to weather threats, with yellow denoting a watch, orange denoting an advisory, and red denoting a warning.

The changes are based on several years of work by a multidisciplinary team at NCAR that worked closely with the NWS, an agency within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The team developed prototype graphics and surveyed tens of thousands of weather.gov local forecast users, finding that specific improvements to the graphics could greatly improve public understanding of the forecasts.

“We want to help people better understand when there’s a major weather threat and when it’s likely to occur,” said NCAR’s Julie Demuth, a researcher who specializes in communicating weather risks to the public. “The main goal is to better convey information that’s critical for protecting lives and protecting property.”

Eli Jacks, acting chief of the NWS’s Forecast Services Division, said the changes are an important step toward helping people make better use of NWS forecasts.

“Just putting out the forecast is no longer enough,” he said. “This helps users interpret the forecast more easily and use it to make informed decisions.”

NWS director Louis Uccellini said the new project demonstrates the importance of research in communicating forecasts to the public.

“Research provides the essential backbone to any effective operational product used by the National Weather Service to protect lives and property,” Uccellini said. “Not only must we have advancements in atmospheric science to improve forecasts and services, we must also infuse social science to ensure we are communicating forecast information in a way that is clear and understandable so people can take appropriate action.”

The work was primarily funded by the NWS, with additional support from NOAA and the National Science Foundation, which sponsors NCAR.

Forecasts at a glance

Demuth and her colleagues began looking into the issue several years ago when the NWS wanted to determine if the icons could communicate weather information more clearly. An icon depicting rain, for example, might prompt people to cancel outdoor plans even if there was just a 10 percent chance of showers for a few hours.

The research team, working with the NWS, focused on better transmitting two aspects of a forecast that are crucial for helping people understand their risk: the existence of a hazardous weather threat and the timing of that threat. They developed experimental graphics and text with the goal of conveying sometimes complex information in a way that is easy to interpret.

“This is supposed to be a forecast at a glance, so we adapted the approach using NCAR’s work as a basis.” Jacks said. “Ideally a user will look at it and get a pretty good idea of what is expected.”

Demuth and her colleagues conducted two rounds of surveys with more than 13,000 users of NWS forecasts, asking them to evaluate designs to see which one was best at communicating a severe thunderstorm warning and a flood watch.

The surveys showed that users were significantly better at identifying the timing and nature of the weather threat when the information was presented with new graphics and reinforced with wording that stated the start and stop times of the threat. For example, more than 97 percent of survey respondents correctly identified the start and end time of the flood watch with the revamped graphics and text, compared to less than 4 percent in a control group using the existing NWS presentation.

The research team summarized its findings in a 2013 paper in Weather and Forecasting, an American Meteorological Society journal.

Building on this work, the NWS further refined the icons and began to test them last year, asking for input from thousands of users. The agency is now previewing the new graphical approach on its website as it prepares to launch the new version across the nation next month.

“This work illustrates the importance of evaluating how people interpret information about risks, particularly when it’s a matter of public safety,” Demuth said. “Making improvements in how we communicate hazardous weather information—even seemingly small improvements—can translate into very large benefits for society.”

“It’s gratifying to be part of a collaboration where NCAR research is being used to help the National Weather Service alert people across the U.S. about potentially dangerous weather," said Thomas Bogdan, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. "This is a great example of how investments in science lead to substantial benefits for society.”

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages NCAR under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation.

Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this release do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Happy 4th of July!

Mark Kramer, Chair

New York City/Long Island AMS Chapter

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Stewartsville May 2015 Summary

Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary
May-15
DAY MAX MIN MEAN PRECIP COMMENTS
1 66.0 40.0 53.0 0.00
2 74.0 44.0 59.0 0.00
3 81.0 43.0 62.0 0.00
4 85.0 47.0 66.0 0.00
5 83.0 56.0 69.5 0.00
6 71.0 55.0 63.0 0.00
7 82.0 50.0 66.0 0.00
8 86.0 52.0 69.0 0.00
9 73.0 56.0 64.5 0.00
10 84.0 60.0 72.0 0.00
11 86.0 68.0 77.0 0.00
12 85.0 63.0 74.0 0.00
13 69.0 49.0 59.0 0.00
14 73.0 42.0 57.5 0
15 76.0 44.0 60.0 0.00
16 83.0 54.0 68.5 0.00
17 83.0 62.0 72.5 0.00
18 80.0 55.0 67.5 0.00
19 83.0 55.0 69.0 0.03
20 68.0 48.0 58.0 0.00
21 61.0 45.0 53.0 0.00
22 74.0 47.0 60.5 0.02
23 71.0 43.0 57.0 0.00
24 82.0 39.0 60.5 0.00
25 87.0 58.0 72.5 0.00
26 90.0 64.0 77.0 0.00
27 87.0 67.0 77.0 0.03
28 88.0 65.0 76.5 0.00
29 87.0 56.0 71.5 0.00
30 88.0 65.0 76.5 0.00
31 85.0 58.0 71.5 0.86
0.94
Extreme High 90.0 Date: 26-May
Extreme Low 39.0 Date: 24-May
Mean Max: 79.7
Mean Low: 53.2
Mean: 66.5
dabour
Days > 90 1.0
Days > 85 11.0
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